The COVID-19 Pandemic and Nature-Based Tourism, Scenario Planning Approach (Case Study of Nature-Based Tourism in Iran)

The development of nature-based tourism is one of the most critical sectors of tourism, which is influenced by various economic, socio-cultural, and environmental factors. The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced all sectors of tourism, including nature-based tourism. The purpose of this article is to identify the key drivers affecting the development of nature-based tourism and analyze future scenarios of nature-based tourism in Iran based on the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Micmac and ScenarioWizard software programs were used to analyze the research findings. Many factors affect the development of nature-based tourism in Iran, which fall into two human and natural factors groups. Five factors are the key drivers influencing the development of nature-based tourism in Iran: national, regional and globaly safety (F2); economic stability (F8); private sector participation (F9), human crises such as diseases, wars, etc. (F16); national and international advertising (national and international (F17); and travel costs (F19). According to the future of the COVID-19 pandemic, the research results show that a total of 10 scenarios for the future of nature-based tourism in Iran are conceivable, which are presented in three groups.