Analysing projections of extreme events in the UK: two complementary approaches

Studies of future extreme weather events often struggle to place those events into context for stakeholders interested in climate risk assessment and adaptation planning. Here we place future extremes in the context of the recent past by examining how the frequency of impactful observed events may change in a warmer climate, and how events with a similar likelihood of occurrence to those seen in the past may change in magnitude. This approach helps users understand potential future impacts from the perspective of past events. Alongside the quantitative results, we developed a qualitative narrative to help decision-makers conceptualise how future extreme weather might differ from familiar events. This narrative describes plausible future events from climate projections, encouraging audiences to draw on their lived experience and consider how future impacts may compare. We apply this framework to three UK case studies: heatwaves across the UK, heavy rain over Cumbria and wildfire over Norfolk. These case studies were selected through engagement with stakeholders focused on national climate risks. All three types of extreme weather are projected to increase in both frequency and magnitude as the climate warms. By grounding future projections in the context of past impactful events, the framework could support improved climate risk assessment and help policymakers explore how increasing severity and frequency of extreme weather may influence future impacts and adaptation needs in a warming world. Together these approaches help translate possible future climate extremes into information that supports practical, informed adaptation decisions.