Predicting Postoperative Mortality With Deep Neural Networks and Natural Language Processing: Model Development and Validation (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Machine learning (ML) achieves better predictions of postoperative mortality than previous prediction tools. Free-text descriptions of the preoperative diagnosis and the planned procedure are available preoperatively. Because reading these descriptions helps anesthesiologists evaluate the risk of the surgery, we hypothesized that deep learning (DL) models with unstructured text could improve postoperative mortality prediction. However, it is challenging to extract meaningful concept embeddings from this unstructured clinical text. OBJECTIVE This study aims to develop a fusion DL model containing structured and unstructured features to predict the in-hospital 30-day postoperative mortality before surgery. ML models for predicting postoperative mortality using preoperative data with or without free clinical text were assessed. METHODS We retrospectively collected preoperative anesthesia assessments, surgical information, and discharge summaries of patients undergoing general and neuraxial anesthesia from electronic health records (EHRs) from 2016 to 2020. We first compared the deep neural network (DNN) with other models using the same input features to demonstrate effectiveness. Then, we combined the DNN model with bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT) to extract information from clinical texts. The effects of adding text information on the model performance were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). Statistical significance was evaluated using P<.05. RESULTS The final cohort contained 121,313 patients who underwent surgeries. A total of 1562 (1.29%) patients died within 30 days of surgery. Our BERT-DNN model achieved the highest AUROC (0.964, 95% CI 0.961-0.967) and AUPRC (0.336, 95% CI 0.276-0.402). The AUROC of the BERT-DNN was significantly higher compared to logistic regression (AUROC=0.952, 95% CI 0.949-0.955) and the American Society of Anesthesiologist Physical Status (ASAPS AUROC=0.892, 95% CI 0.887-0.896) but not significantly higher compared to the DNN (AUROC=0.959, 95% CI 0.956-0.962) and the random forest (AUROC=0.961, 95% CI 0.958-0.964). The AUPRC of the BERT-DNN was significantly higher compared to the DNN (AUPRC=0.319, 95% CI 0.260-0.384), the random forest (AUPRC=0.296, 95% CI 0.239-0.360), logistic regression (AUPRC=0.276, 95% CI 0.220-0.339), and the ASAPS (AUPRC=0.149, 95% CI 0.107-0.203). CONCLUSIONS Our BERT-DNN model has an AUPRC significantly higher compared to previously proposed models using no text and an AUROC significantly higher compared to logistic regression and the ASAPS. This technique helps identify patients with higher risk from the surgical description text in EHRs.