Point-process models with linearly parametrized intensity for application to earthquake data

It is demonstrated that linear parametrization of the conditional intensity provides systematic classes of flexible models which are reasonably useful for calculating maximum likelihoods. To exemplify the modelling, seismic activity around Canberra is decomposed into components of evolutionary trend, clustering and periodicity. The causal relationship between earthquake sequences from two seismic regions is also analysed for a certain Japanese earthquake data set. Some technical aspects of the modelling and calculations are described.