The role of group composition in collaborative foresight

In fast-changing, complex environments where uncertainty abounds, collaborative foresight is increasingly advocated as a means of navigating these conditions – but under what circumstances do its promised benefits materialize? We investigate when collaborative foresight – foresight conducted jointly by two or more organizations – delivers its promised benefits by examining how group composition shapes collective cognition and the ability to challenge dominant mental models and beliefs inherited from past experiences. Our systematic literature review shows limited rigorous theory development on how the composition (in terms of homogeneity versus heterogeneity) of the group of individuals representing the organizations involved affects collaborative foresight processes. It also shows that much of the literature treats diversity as a uniform construct. We propose a conceptual framework that highlights how the deliberate configuration of heterogeneity and homogeneity across attributes gives rise to distinct cognitive dynamics, with both enabling and constraining effects on collective cognition. In doing so, it advances the understanding of these relationships and provides a conceptual foundation for systematically reflecting on and identifying context-specific group compositions for collaborative foresight processes. Moreover, the review shows how these cognitive dynamics shape the collaborative foresight process while emphasizing its recursive nature, as the process itself continuously influences and reconfigures the group's cognition. The paper concludes by outlining a research agenda to guide future empirical and theoretical work.