Randomized trial demonstrates accurate possession-level tactical recognition in basketball formations, highlighting improved analysis capabilities.
Basketball tactical states span possession phase, defensive coverage, pressure intensity, and offensive organization, and therefore cannot be represented reliably by a single mutually exclusive label. A temporal-order-aware Swin Transformer is developed as a hierarchical multi-task framework for possession-level tactical recognition. Each clip is first classified as settled possession or transition. For settled possessions with observable defensive structures, a conditional branch distinguishes man-to-man from zone defense, while independent sigmoid heads identify high-pressure defense, weak-side overload, and high-post organization as potentially co-occurring attributes. Player-location heat maps, formation-density maps, and relative spatial-connectivity maps are encoded through multi-scale feature fusion, hierarchical window attention, and shifted-window propagation. Temporal position embeddings and learnable attention pooling preserve the order of 16 frames and emphasize tactical reorganization states. Annotator vote distributions are retained as soft targets, entropy-based weights reduce the influence of uncertain samples, and prototype regularization is restricted to the phase and coverage branches. Experiments use 9840 possession clips with a match-disjoint split of 6888/984/1968. On the test set, phase, conditional-coverage, and attribute Macro-F1 reach 0.944, 0.923, and 0.900, respectively; the exact-match ratio, Hamming loss, Brier score, and expected calibration error are 0.825, 0.058, 0.061, and 0.026. The auxiliary dominant-label Accuracy and Macro-F1 are 0.941 and 0.928. The structured model operates at 53.8 FPS with 58.4 G FLOPs, supporting accurate and efficient possession-level tactical analysis.
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Zhixiang Jin (2026) studied this question.
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