Sequence-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Brief Report| March 25, 2014 Sequence‐Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Iunio Iervolino; Iunio Iervolino aDipartimento di Strutture per l'Ingegneria e l'Architettura, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyiunio.iervolino@unina.itbarbara.polidoro@unina.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Massimiliano Giorgio; Massimiliano Giorgio bDipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e dell'Informazione, Seconda Università degli Studi di Napoli, via Roma 29, 81031 Aversa (CE), Italymassimiliano.giorgio@unina2.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Barbara Polidoro Barbara Polidoro aDipartimento di Strutture per l'Ingegneria e l'Architettura, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyiunio.iervolino@unina.itbarbara.polidoro@unina.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Iunio Iervolino aDipartimento di Strutture per l'Ingegneria e l'Architettura, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyiunio.iervolino@unina.itbarbara.polidoro@unina.it Massimiliano Giorgio bDipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e dell'Informazione, Seconda Università degli Studi di Napoli, via Roma 29, 81031 Aversa (CE), Italymassimiliano.giorgio@unina2.it Barbara Polidoro aDipartimento di Strutture per l'Ingegneria e l'Architettura, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italyiunio.iervolino@unina.itbarbara.polidoro@unina.it Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 14 Jul 2017 Online ISSN: 1943-3573 Print ISSN: 0037-1106 Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (2): 1006–1012. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130207 Article history First Online: 14 Jul 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Iunio Iervolino, Massimiliano Giorgio, Barbara Polidoro; Sequence‐Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2014;; 104 (2): 1006–1012. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130207 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract Earthquakes are typically clustered both in space and time. Only mainshocks, the largest magnitude events within each cluster, are considered by classical seismic hazard, which is expressed in terms of rate of exceedance of a ground‐motion intensity measure at a site of interest (Cornell, 1968). This kind of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is used for structural design or assessment in the long term. Recently, for short‐term risk management purposes, a similar approach has been adopted to perform aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA), conditional to mainshock occurrence (Yeo and Cornell, 2009). PSHA often refers to a homogeneous Poisson process to describe event occurrence, whereas APSHA models aftershock occurrence via a conditional nonhomogeneous Poisson process, the rate of which depends on the magnitude of the mainshock that has triggered the sequence. On the other hand, the clusters, each of which is composed of the mainshock and the following aftershocks, may be seen as single events occurring at the same rate of the mainshocks. This may allow accounting for aftershocks in hazard analysis in a relatively simple manner, as first argued by Toro and Silva (2001) and further investigated by Boyd (2012). In fact, this short note, focusing on the probabilistic aspects, shows the feasibility of analytically combining results of PSHA and APSHA to get a seismic hazard integral accounting for mainshock–aftershocks seismic sequences, which was still missing from the mentioned studies. The results of the application presented help to preliminarily assess the increase in seismic hazard in terms of rate of occurrence of events causing the exceedance of an acceleration threshold (e.g., that considered for structural design) also considering aftershocks. That is a relevant aspect from the earthquake engineering perspective. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.