Key result
Moderate rainfall was associated with a significantly higher risk of hand, foot and mouth disease hospitalization compared to no rainfall, with a cumulative relative risk of 5.04 over a 25-day lag.
Why the study?
Do short-term meteorological variations affect hospitalizations for hand, foot and mouth disease in Hong Kong?
Observational (n=1,534)
Do short-term meteorological variations affect hospitalizations for hand, foot and mouth disease in Hong Kong?
Relative Risk: 5.04 (95% CI 2.41–10.55)
Short-term meteorological variations, including higher temperature and relative humidity, are significantly associated with increased hospitalizations for hand, foot and mouth disease in Hong Kong.
Supports enhanced HFMD surveillance during rainy periods; leaves open causality and generalizability.
BACKGROUND: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an emerging enterovirus-induced infectious disease for which the environmental risk factors promoting disease circulation remain inconclusive. This study aims to quantify the association of daily weather variation with hospitalizations for HFMD in Hong Kong, a subtropical city in China. METHODS: A time series of daily counts of HFMD public hospital admissions from 2008 through 2011 in Hong Kong was regressed on daily mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and total rainfall, using a combination of negative binomial generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for trend, season, and day of week. RESULTS: There was a positive association between temperature and HFMD, with increasing trends from 8 to 20°C and above 25°C with a plateau in between. A hockey-stick relationship of relative humidity with HFMD was found, with markedly increasing risks over 80%. Moderate rainfall and stronger wind and solar radiation were also found to be associated with more admissions. CONCLUSIONS: The present study provides quantitative evidence that short-term meteorological variations could be used as early indicators for potential HFMD outbreaks. Climate change is likely to lead to a substantial increase in severe HFMD cases in this subtropical city in the absence of further interventions.
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Pin et al. (2016) conducted an observational in Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) (n=1,534). Meteorological variations (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, solar radiation) vs. Reference meteorological conditions (e.g., 25th percentile or no rainfall) was evaluated on Daily counts of HFMD hospitalizations (RR 5.04, 95% CI 2.41-10.55). Moderate rainfall was associated with a significantly higher risk of hand, foot and mouth disease hospitalization compared to no rainfall, with a cumulative relative risk of 5.04 over a 25-day lag.
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