Key result
About 40% of elite young adult hockey and soccer players were born in the first quarter of the age cohort, compared to just 10% in the last quarter, demonstrating a persistent relative age effect.
Why the study?
The study was conducted to explore the Relative Age Effect nearly 40 years after its initial examination by replicating original analyses using 2023 data.
Observational
The Relative Age Effect remains a persistent source of inequality in elite youth sports, heavily favoring athletes born early in the selection year.
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Relative age bias persists in elite selection; leaves open whether interventions can mitigate long-standing inequalities.
This paper explores the Relative Age Effect (RAE) after nearly 40 years since its initial examination in sports. Two original studies identified significant participation differences between relatively older and younger players in age-grouped elite hockey and soccer. In the current study, we replicate the original analyses using 2023 data. By comparing data from the original studies and 2023, focusing on Major Junior A hockey in North America and the Under-17 and Under-20 World Soccer Tournaments, we observe remarkably similar RAE patterns. For instance, both the original and the 2023 studies indicate that about 40% of elite young adult players were born in the first quarter of the age cohort, compared to just 10% in the last quarter. This paper underscores the ongoing advantages and disadvantages created by RAE and calls for greater focus on strategies to mitigate its unfair effects in sports and education.
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Roger H. Barnsley (2025) conducted an observational in Relative Age Effect in Sports. Birth in the first quarter of the age cohort (Q1) vs. Birth in the last quarter of the age cohort (Q4) was evaluated on Proportion of players born in the respective quarter of the age cohort. About 40% of elite young adult hockey and soccer players were born in the first quarter of the age cohort, compared to just 10% in the last quarter, demonstrating a persistent relative age effect.
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