Key result
Machine learning classifiers using over 100 variables identified age, comorbidity, social factors, and drug treatments as the strongest predictors of 30-day emergency department readmission.
Observational
Machine learning classifiers using variables such as age, comorbidity, and social factors can predict 30-day emergency department readmissions.
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May inform targeted readmission prevention; leaves open prospective validation of ML models before clinical use.
BACKGROUND: Emergency department (ED) readmissions are considered an indicator of healthcare quality that is particularly relevant in older adults. The primary objective of this study was to identify key factors for predicting patients returning to the ED within 30 days of being discharged. METHODS: We analysed patients who attended our ED in June 2014, stratified into four groups based on the Kaiser pyramid. We collected data on more than 100 variables per case including demographic and clinical characteristics and drug treatments. We identified the variables with the highest discriminating power to predict ED readmission and constructed classifiers using machine learning methods to provide predictions. RESULTS: Classifier performance distinguishing between patients who were and were not readmitted (within 30 days), in terms of average accuracy (AC). The variables with the greatest discriminating power were age, comorbidity, reasons for consultation, social factors, and drug treatments. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to predict readmissions in stratified groups with high accuracy and to identify the most important factors influencing the event. Therefore, it will be possible to develop interventions to improve the quality of care provided to ED patients.
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Besga et al. (2015) conducted an observational in Emergency department patients. Risk factors (age, comorbidity, reasons for consultation, social factors, drug treatments) was evaluated on Emergency department readmission within 30 days. Machine learning classifiers using over 100 variables identified age, comorbidity, social factors, and drug treatments as the strongest predictors of 30-day emergency department readmission.
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