Multivariate analysis of the risk for pulmonary complication after gastrointestinal surgery

AIM: To identify the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications (PPC) after gastrointestinal surgery. METHODS: A total of 1 002 patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery in the Second Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, during December 1999 and December 2003, were retrospectively studied. RESULTS: The overall incidence of PPC was 22.8% (228/1,002). Multivariate logistic analysis identified nine risk factors associated with PPC, including age odds ratio (OR = 1.040) history of respiratory diseases (OR = 2.976), serum albumin (OR = 0.954), chemotherapy 2 wk before operation (OR = 3.214), volume of preoperative erythrocyte transfusion (OR = 1.002), length of preoperative antibiotic therapy (OR=1.072), intraoperative intratracheal intubation (OR = 1.002), nasogastric intubation (OR = 1.050) and postoperative mechanical ventilation (OR = 1.878). Logistic regression equation for predicting the risk of PPC was P(1) = 1/[1+e(-(-3.488+0.039 x Y+1.090 x Rd+0.001 x Rbc-0.047 x Alb+0.002 x Lii+0.049 x Lni+0.630 x Lmv+0.070 x Dat+1.168 x Ct))]. CONCLUSION: Old patients are easier to develop PPC.