Understanding climate vulnerability and economic impacts on rural livelihoods: lessons from Narowal, Punjab

Introduction Climate change is directly affecting the agriculture sector, and the underlying vulnerability of farmers is often overlooked. Despite agriculture's vital role in economy of Pakistan, localized assessments of farmers' climate vulnerability and adaptation remain limited. Methods This study assesses the vulnerability of rice–wheat farmers in District Narowal, Punjab, to multi-hazard climatic variability using a climate vulnerability index (CVI). Data was collected from 300 households through door-to-door surveys and focus group discussions across two Tehsils of District Narowal. Results and discussion Overall, IPCC-CVI was accounted as 0.26 and 0.91 for Tehsil Narowal and Tehsil Shakargarh respectively. These findings reveal that extreme temperatures, erratic rainfall, and recurrent floods significantly disrupt crop cycles, reduce yields, and exacerbate food insecurity. Biological hazards, including pest outbreaks and resilient weeds, further compound risks, while limited financial, human, and physical capital restrict adaptive capacity. Socio-economic factors such as age, education, land size, and ownership rights emerged as key determinants of vulnerability, making Tehsil Narowal slightly more vulnerable than Tehsil Shakargarh. Farmers exhibit moderate adaptation through crop diversification and altered sowing dates; however, sociocultural barriers, particularly for women, hinder technology adoption. Implications The study underscores the urgent need to mainstream climate resilience into agricultural development projects and provincial policies to safeguard rural livelihoods and stabilize Pakistan's agricultural economy.