The Influence of Green Intellectual Capital, Financial Performance, and Carbon Disclosure on Sustainability Performance: Asymmetric Mediation and Path-Specific Moderation in Indonesian Manufacturing Companies

HRMARS - The global climate crisis and rising demands for environmental accountability are pushing companies, particularly Indonesia's manufacturing sector, to strengthen their sustainability practices. This study aims to analyze the influence of Green Intellectual Capital (GIC), financial performance, and carbon disclosure on the sustainability performance of Indonesian manufacturing companies over the 2022-2024 period. The study also examines the roles of Flexibility in Financial Management (FFM) and risk mitigation as mediators, and Green Corporate Governance (GCG) as a moderator. The method employed is embedded two-stage PLS-SEM on 300 panel observations from 100 effective companies. The results show that GIC has a positive effect on FFM (? = 0.332; p < 0.001) and sustainability performance (? = 0.130; p = 0.028), but has no effect on risk mitigation (? = -0.052; p = 0.299). Financial performance has a positive effect on FFM (? = 0.236) and risk mitigation (? = 0.369), but has no direct effect on sustainability performance (? = 0.064; p = 0.266). Carbon disclosure has a positive effect on risk mitigation (? = 0.205) and sustainability performance (? = 0.193; p = 0.001), but has no effect on FFM (? = 0.106; p = 0.136). The test results confirm asymmetric double mediation: FFM does not mediate any path (all p > 0.97), while risk mitigation fully mediates the effect of financial performance (indirect = 0.108; p = 0.020) and partially mediates the effect of carbon disclosure (indirect = 0.060; p = 0.043). GCG strengthens the risk mitigation-to-sustainability performance path (? = 0.347; p = 0.002) but does not moderate the FFM-to-sustainability performance path (? = -0.172; p = 0.135), confirming path-specific moderation and a governance-flexibility disconnect in Indonesia's manufacturing sector. IPMA analysis identifies carbon disclosure and GIC as the primary intervention priorities. The findings affirm that sustainability performance is not determined by financial strength alone, but by the integration of green capabilities, carbon disclosure quality, and governance that directs risk management capacity toward strategic sustainability goals.