The effectiveness of outbreak response measures for pathogens of different characteristics

The initial response to an outbreak of a novel pathogen requires implementing measures to limit transmission before its characteristics and behaviour are fully understood. This study aimed to investigate how the effectiveness of key public health interventions may depend on pathogen characteristics. Using an agent-based model we simulated outbreaks of pathogens with different R 0 , latent period, infectious period and symptomatic fraction, under different public health policies (e.g. public health and social measures, testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine duration and mask usage). For each scenario and pathogen, we recorded infections over the first 60 days and in total, and calculated relative reductions compared to a no-intervention baseline. We found that R 0 was the primary driver of total outbreak size. The latent period influenced the outbreak speed, and hence how quickly and for how long a public health response may be needed. A longer infectious period and higher symptomatic fraction increased the relative impacts of testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine. Compared to testing and tracing scenarios, public health and social measures were less sensitive to symptomatic fraction and infectious period. These results demonstrate the importance of rapidly identifying these disease characteristics to guide more targeted and efficient policy responses.