Quantitative analysis tests linguistic deviation's effect on stock returns across firms, suggesting notable predictability.
Quantitative analysis of corporate disclosures has largely relied on bag-of-words sentiment dictionaries that reduce a one-hour earnings call to a single net-positive word count. This paper tests whether a structural linguistic feature, deviation from a firm's own prior-year earnings-call language, carries incremental return predictability after controlling for standard risk factors. Deviation is measured on verbatim earnings-call transcripts filed as Exhibit 99 attachments to Form 8-K on SEC EDGAR, using TF-IDF cosine similarity between a firm's current and year-earlier call. Across 24 firms and 358 firm-quarters filing verbatim transcripts on EDGAR between 2018 and 2024, a long-short portfolio sorted on this deviation measure earns 1.27% per month (t = 0.88) after controlling for the Fama-French five factors plus momentum. The point estimate is economically large but not statistically significant.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Atharv Sharma (2026) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: