Near‐global impact of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation on rainfall

The accuracy of synoptic‐based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather‐climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near‐global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO‐based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather‐climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra‐tropical MJO‐associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate‐sensitive systems such as agriculture.