Key result
Cigarette smoking prevalence is projected to decline across all US states by 2035, shrinking the gap between historically high (6.6%) and low (3.8%) prevalence states.
Why the study?
Cigarette smoking continues to have significant population-level health consequences, but whether differential sociodemographic trends in smoking prevalence since 1992 will close the prevalence gap between US states by 2035 was unknown.
Population
1 770 442 respondents from 18 state-representative US surveys
Comparison
States grouped into tertiles by 1990s smoking prevalence
Design
Cross-sectional study of repeated surveys with time series projections
Authors
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Projected state smoking gaps may narrow by 2035; leaves open whether policies can meet <5% targets in most states.
Cross-Sectional (n=1,770,442)
Yes
Absolute Event Rate: 12.7% vs 7.4%
While the gap in cigarette smoking prevalence between US states is projected to shrink by 2035, only four states are on track to meet the recommended target of 5% prevalence.
Stone et al. (2025) conducted a cross-sectional in Cigarette smoking (n=1,770,442). Historically high smoking prevalence (Tertile 3) vs. Historically low smoking prevalence (Tertile 1) was evaluated on Smoking prevalence in 2022. Cigarette smoking prevalence is projected to decline across all US states by 2035, shrinking the gap between historically high (6.6%) and low (3.8%) prevalence states.
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