Key result
A model using 25 pre-operative variables predicted severe pain on the first postoperative day with moderate discrimination (c-statistic 0.66), which improved when adding intra-operative variables.
Why the study?
Acute postoperative pain is common, distressing, and linked to increased morbidity, but targeted interventions can prevent it if high-risk patients are pre-emptively identified.
Population
17,079 patients undergoing major surgery in the UK
Design
Secondary analysis of registry data to develop and internally validate a prediction model
Follow-up
First postoperative day
Authors
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May enable preoperative risk stratification for severe pain; leaves open external validation and outcome impact.
Observational (n=17,079)
Yes
Effect estimate: c-statistic 0.66
A pre-operative prediction model for severe postoperative pain showed moderate discrimination, which improved with the inclusion of peri-operative covariates, suggesting pre-operative variables alone are insufficient.
Armstrong et al. (2023) conducted an observational in Major surgery (n=17,079). Pre-operative variables was evaluated on severe pain on the first postoperative day (c-statistic 0.66). A model using 25 pre-operative variables predicted severe pain on the first postoperative day with moderate discrimination (c-statistic 0.66), which improved when adding intra-operative variables.
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