Longitudinal changes in anthropometric measures and new-onset atrial fibrillation among men and women from general population

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia of clinical significance. Recent evidence suggests differences in epidemiology and risk factors of AF between women and men. Obesity and body size are established risk factors for AF. However, anthropometric measures tend to change over time. Few studies have investigated the impact of longitudinal changes in anthropometric measures on incident AF among men and women. Purpose To assess the association between longitudinal changes in different anthropometric measures and new-onset AF among community-dwelling men and women. Methods Among 12,848 participants free of AF at baseline were included in this large prospective population-based cohort study, each anthropometric measure was measured at least once and up to five times. Anthropometric measures included weight, height, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), waist to hip ratio (WHR), and body mass index (BMI). Anthropometric measures were standardized for direct comparisons. Joint models were used to assess the association of each anthropometric factor and their longitudinal changes with incident AF. Models were adjusted for age and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Results A total of 5,266 men and 7,218 women (mean age 63.87 years for men and 64.94 years for women) were followed up for a median of 10.5 years. AF occurred in 630 (12.0%) men and 692 (8.7%) women. Longitudinal increases in weight, height, WC, HC and BMI increased the risk for new-onset AF in a linear manner. The age-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were 1.38 (1.26–1.51) for weight, 1.41 (1.26–1.59) for height, 1.26 (1.13–1.41) for WC, 1.36 (1.19–1.55) for HC and 1.22 (1.11–1.35) for BMI among men. Among women, the age-adjusted HRs (95% CI) were 1.41 (1.30–1.52) for weight, 1.21 (1.07–1.38) for height, 1.39 (1.27–1.52) for WC, 1.29 (1.19–1.40) for HC and 1.28 (1.19–1.37) for BMI. Further, longitudinal increase in WHR was significantly associated with increased risk of AF in women [HR (95% CI): 1.42 (1.21–1.66)] but not in men [HR (95% CI): 1.11 (0.96–1.30)]. Conclusions Longitudinal changes in anthropometric measures were associated with the increased risk for new-onset AF among men and women in the general population. An increase in measures of central obesity over time showed a stronger association with incident AF among women, compared to men. Our findings underscore the importance of a sex-specific approach for screening and monitoring of anthropometric measures for AF prevention. Main results among men and women Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None