Why the study?
It was unknown whether pooled cardiovascular expertise could accurately predict efficacy and tolerability for both a novel and an established treatment option.
Does pooled cardiovascular expertise accurately predict blood pressure lowering efficacy in clinical trials?
Does pooled cardiovascular expertise accurately predict blood pressure lowering efficacy in clinical trials?
Pooled cardiovascular expertise accurately predicted the blood pressure lowering efficacy of both a novel ultra-low dose quadruple pill and standard monotherapy within 1 mmHg of observed trial results.
Expert predictions aligned with QUARTET BP reductions but overestimated adverse effects threefold; supports caution on tolerability assumptions and leaves open bias mitigation research.
In a first of its kind assessment in cardiovascular research, we assessed whether pooled cardiovascular expertise could accurately predict efficacy and tolerability for both a novel and an established treatment option. A survey was administered prior to the publication of the QUARTET (A Quadruple UltrA-low-dose tReatment for hypErTension) trial. QUARTET was a multicentre, double-blind, parallel-group, trial that randomised participants to initial treatment with either monotherapy or an ultra-low dose quadruple single pill combination for 12 weeks. Survey participants were asked to predict blood pressure (BP) at 12 weeks and 52 weeks for both groups.
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Gnanenthiran et al. (2023) studied this question.
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