Climate change as an amplifier of food insecurity and structural inequalities: governance-mediated pathways in Brazil

Climate change poses systemic risks to food security, particularly in contexts of deep inequality. This study analyses how climate stressors interact with structural inequalities and governance to shape food security outcomes in Brazil. Using a convergent mixed-methods design — combining descriptive statistical analysis of closed-ended questionnaire items with thematic content analysis of open-ended responses, and integrating findings during interpretation — and drawing on 97 key informants with professional experience in food systems and related public policies, the findings suggest that climate change constitutes an important and interacting driver of food insecurity, operating through mechanisms of economic access, institutional fragmentation and structural inequality rather than through aggregate physical shortages of insecurity. Crucially, impacts manifest less through aggregate physical shortages than through disruptions in economic access, affordability, and price stability. Extreme events trigger supply chain instability that disproportionately burdens low-income populations and peripheral territories, revealing deep climate injustice. While community-based initiatives offer local resilience, findings show they are constrained by fragmented governance and insufficient public support. We argue that relying on local adaptation without state coordination risks reproducing inequality. The study concludes that effective adaptation requires integrated governance that links climate action with social protection. These insights from Brazil provide a critical framework for understanding climate-inequality nexuses in other Global South contexts.