Mapping supply chains, cost structure analysis, and investment priorities for food system transformation under conflict and climate stress in northern Nigeria

Protracted conflict, climate shocks, and infrastructural deficit have profoundly disrupted food system in northern Nigeria, resulting in severe food insecurity and heightened livelihood vulnerability. Despite the severity of these challenges, there remains limited empirical evidence on how such interacting shocks reshape food systems functioning and what context-specific interventions are required to address these challenges and structural inefficiencies. This evidence gap constrains effective policy design, investment prioritization, and food system transformation into conflict- and climate-affected settings. This study addresses this evidence gap by integrating GIS-based food supply chain mapping, cost structure analysis, and investment appraisal of food system interventions in conflict-affected and climate-vulnerable areas. The analysis quantifies transaction and logistics across major food system actors, identifies systemic inefficiencies driven by conflict and climatic stressors, and examines how these constraints disrupt food production, market functioning, and humanitarian food flows. By combining commodity-specific diagnostics with stakeholder perspectives, the study develops evidence-based pathways for addressing food system failures under compounded risk conditions. Two illustrative investment cases — improving on-farm storage and localized wheat milling — demonstrate how targeted interventions can reduce post-harvest losses, lower transaction costs, enhance system resilience, and generate co-benefits for both humanitarian responses and market recovery. Overall, the findings provide actionable evidence to support policy and investment decisions aimed at transforming food system and strengthening resilience and enhancing efficacy of short-term interventions on humanitarian needs in northern Nigeria, with broader relevance for other low-and-middle income countries experiencing conflicts and climate-related shocks.