Critical policies for China's carbon neutrality: ‘dual control’ on energy consumption versus carbon emissions

China's primary policy lever for carbon emission reduction is shifting from an ‘energy dual control’ system – focused on limiting total volume and intensity of energy consumption – to a ‘carbon dual control’ framework. However, the broader impacts of this policy shift on the energy system, carbon emissions, and the economy remain uncertain. This study develops linear programming models to maximize economic growth while accounting for energy demand and sectoral growth, comparing the impacts of this policy shift on China's energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic performance. Results show that carbon ‘dual control’ more effectively optimizes the energy structure and encourages the development of natural gas and non-fossil energy, while reducing energy costs and supporting economic growth, especially in the secondary sector. Targeting carbon emissions instead of energy consumption alone lowers the risk of higher-than-expected carbon peaks or failing to peak. China is still in a transitional phase, with carbon intensity targets in place and energy ‘dual control’ being refined – particularly by excluding non-fossil energy and energy used as raw material from total consumption. While this helps ease energy constraints and support growth, it may increase emissions and delay peaking if not properly managed. To support this shift, policymakers should strengthen inter-agency coordination, gradually phase out the energy consumption limits, and enhance carbon governance capacity. Key actions include tightening coal regulations, scaling up clean energy investment, improving energy efficiency, accelerating industrial transformation, and advancing international cooperation on carbon cap management.