Less risk, more effort: How overconfidence reshapes tournament strategies

In many competitive settings, players must decide not only how hard to work but also how much risk to take. This paper shows that overconfidence—the tendency to overestimate one’s own ability—can lead to surprising strategic behavior in tournaments in which players make both risk and effort choices. We find two key results. First, overconfident players may adopt less risky strategies than rational ones, defying the common belief that overconfidence necessarily drives risk-taking. Second, when overconfident players adopt less risky strategies, they may exert greater effort, revealing a new mechanism by which overconfidence can enhance effort provision.