Research on China-Central Asia Agricultural Trade Potentials and the Construction of Free Trade Area

China-Central Asia agricultural trade has grown significantly, with great potential and practical need for a free trade area (FTA). This paper uses a global general equilibrium model to simulate the 2030 economic development of China and the five Central Asian countries, and set tariff and non-tariff barrier reductions as FTA policy shocks to explore untapped trade potential. The results show that the agricultural products of China and the five Central Asian countries are competitive and highly complementary, which is a characteristic advantage in participating in agricultural trade. China and the five Central Asian countries have individual development capabilities and economic development potential to support economic integration cooperation. Reducing non-tariff barriers to agricultural products can bring significant macro and industrial economic promotion effects, especially for the five Central Asian countries. Thus, they should actively promote FTA construction to provide an institutional platform for agricultural trade cooperation.