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August 25, 2021Nature CommunicationsOpen Access

Deep neural network-estimated electrocardiographic age as a mortality predictor

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Why the study?

The authors evaluated whether age predicted by artificial intelligence from raw 12-lead ECGs (ECG-age) can serve as a measure of cardiovascular health and predict mortality.

Does deep neural network-estimated electrocardiographic age predict mortality in a large patient cohort?

Population

1,558,415 patients in the CODE cohort, plus ELSA-Brasil (n = 14,236) and SaMi-Trop (n = 1,631)

Comparison

ECG-age more than 8 years greater vs more than 8 years smaller than chronological age

Design

Cohort study with deep neural network training, internal hold-out split, and external cohort validation

Authors

ELEmilly M. LimaARAntônio H. RibeiroMFMarcelo Martins Pinto Filho

Discussion

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Overview

ECG-age >8 years above chronological age was associated with higher mortality; hypothesis-generating for AI-ECG as a health marker, pending prospective validation.

Structured PICO

Does deep neural network-estimated electrocardiographic age predict mortality in a large patient cohort?

P
Population
1,558,415 patients in the CODE study cohort, with external validation in ELSA-Brasil (n = 14,236) and SaMi-Trop (n = 1,631) cohorts
I
Intervention
Deep neural network-estimated electrocardiographic age (ECG-age) from raw 12-lead ECG
C
Comparator
Chronological age (specifically comparing ECG-age >8 years greater vs >8 years smaller than chronological age)
O
Outcome
Mortality ratehard clinical

AI-estimated ECG-age gap from chronological age serves as a significant independent predictor of mortality, even in patients with apparently normal ECGs.

Cite This Study

Lima et al. (2021) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a7d4e0097c2c6e465965d21https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25351-7
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 3 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Deep neural networks can predict mortality from 12-lead electrocardiogram voltage data2019 · 50 citations
  2. 2Automatic diagnosis of the 12-lead ECG using a deep neural network2020 · 882 citations
  3. 3Longitudinal study of patients with chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy in Brazil (SaMi-Trop project): a cohort profile2016 · 80 citations