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Overview
Global epidemiological consensus study reports substantial tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality across 212 countries, highlighting the severe impact of HIV coinfection.
Key Points
- To estimate the risk, prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and disease, including cases attributable to HIV, across 212 countries in 1997.
- Convened an expert panel of 86 epidemiologists and tuberculosis specialists from over 40 countries in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO).
- Synthesized national surveillance data, including WHO case notifications, annual risk of infection from tuberculin surveys, and pulmonary disease prevalence surveys across 212 countries.
- Derived and adjusted country-level estimates through consensus workshops held across six WHO regional offices using standardized analytical methods.
- Estimated 7.96 million incident TB cases (range, 6.3–11.1 million) in 1997, including 3.52 million (44%) smear-positive pulmonary cases, alongside 16.2 million prevalent cases.
- Identified 1.87 million deaths (range, 1.4–2.8 million), corresponding to a global case fatality rate of 23% that exceeded 50% in high-HIV African nations.
- Determined a global MTB infection prevalence of 32% (1.86 billion people), with 80% of incident cases occurring in 22 countries and 640,000 incident cases (8%) co-infected with HIV.
Cite This Study
Dye et al. (1999) studied this question.