Commercial banking in the fintech era: A triadic efficiency analysis of technology, governance, and region using network DEA-window and Tobit regression

This study develops a triadic framework to evaluate operational efficiency in commercial banking and examine how digital finance and Fintech innovations shape performance across institutional and regional contexts. We integrate a two-stage network Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with window analysis (3-year window width) and Tobit regression, distinguishing between productivity and profitability and accounting for ownership structures: state-owned banks (SOBs), joint-stock banks (JSBs), and city commercial banks (COBs). The analysis reveals heterogeneity in digital finance impacts: SOBs benefit from regulatory support but exhibit institutional inertia; JSBs leverage agility to offset structural gaps; COBs face persistent profitability inefficiencies. Regional patterns show infrastructure-driven gains in the West, market saturation in the East, and decline in the Northeast. More critically, digital finance exhibits opposite U-shaped impacts across operational stages: it follows a U-shaped trajectory with productivity efficiency initially suppressing then enhancing, and an inverted U-shaped with profitability efficiency initially boosting then eroding. This divergence underscores the need for ownership- and region-specific digital strategies, improved risk governance, and coordinated regulatory efforts. The proposed framework reconciles the technological, institutional, and spatial dimensions of digital transformation and offers actionable insights for sustainable financial innovation in emerging economies.