How to recover the provision of ecosystem services after Xylella fastidiosa outbreak

In the Mediterranean region, some agricultural land covers can play an ecological role comparable to forests. This research aims to investigate the ecological contribution of different forest types to the future reforestation process of the study area, characterized since 2013 by the presence of Xylella fastidiosa ( Xf ). Mediterranean Pine (MP) and Holm Oak (HO) forests have been compared to Xf Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Olive Groves (A-OG and S-OG), through time-series analyses of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST). MP showed the highest NDVI, followed by HO. From 2006 to 2022, the LST of MP increased by + 1.5 °C, HO and A-OG by + 1 °C, while S-OG increased by + 2.4 °C, attributable in part to the Xf outbreak. The negative correlation between LST and NDVI has been confirmed. The seasonal maximum value revealed that in 2006, the S-OG outperformed MP, HO, and A-OG. Both forests’ NDVI and LST seasonal mean maps for 2006 and 2022 highlighted the effects of summer stress, with S-OG showing a completely changed trend recently. Forecast analysis indicated a stable NDVI for forests. In conclusion, the debate on the suitability of MP or HO in restoration policies after the Xf outbreak is still open and probably landscape diversification could be the best solution.