Is Wildfire Planning Evolving to Support Communities? Taking Stock of 20 years of Community Wildfire Protection Plans in the state of Colorado, United States

Over the past two decades, wildfire policies at the national level have sought to catalyze locally led wildfire mitigation and forest management, while promoting collaboration across sectors. In the United States, Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs) have become one of the primary tools for local wildfire mitigation planning. CWPPs continue to be developed and funded, yet little is known about how CWPPs have evolved in response to changing wildfire vulnerability and advancing knowledge about wildfire risk. We investigated trends in the scope, participation, and mitigation content included in these plans through a review of plans published between 2004 and 2023 in the state of Colorado. Our review finds a notable pattern of stability: scope, participation, and mitigation priorities remain largely consistent over two decades of CWPP development. We found that fewer CWPPs are being developed, and recent plans primarily consist ofupdates to previous plans, trends which seem mainly driven by updated standards and funding requirements. A consistent set of institutional actors have been involved in CWPPs over time, with few trends indicating an expansion in the diversity of plan participants. We also observed a strong focus on fuels reduction, but an increased percentage of plans devoted attention to community preparedness, data collection/monitoring, and policies/standards, although the proportion of actions dedicated to each area remained consistent over time. Drawing on existing adaptive governance and wildfire planning literatures, we speculate on the lack of changes observed over time and reasons why these plans may not have evolved but still provide value to communities under certain conditions. This research seeks to enhance our knowledge of facilitative and inhibiting factors associated with bottom-up collaborative planning.