Climate change and migration across the Yellow River of China during the Little Ice Age

This study examines migration across the Yellow River in response to climate change during the Little Ice Age (1400–1800AD) in Chinese history under the theoretical framework of the push–pull model. Moreover, this study empirically analyses the spatiotemporal patterns of migration across the Yellow River using datasets on precipitation, temperature, migration events, and population size. Results show that more northward migration events across the Yellow River are significantly associated with higher temperatures. More specifically, northward migration across the Yellow River appears to exhibit characteristics of development-oriented migration, potentially encouraged by relatively favourable ecological conditions in destination areas during warmer periods. By contrast, under dry or cold conditions, migrants across the Yellow River prefer to move farther south in search of adequate heat and moisture. Our study empirically demonstrates that the relative importance of push and pull factors is highly context-dependent and shaped by regional agro-ecological systems. These results suggest that the push–pull model should be additionally refined to account for various ecological environments and subsistence structures under dynamic climate change in future studies on migration.