Mixed-methods analysis reveals factors driving land-use change from coffee to oil palm in Lampung, suggesting policy implications.
Land-use conversion from Robusta coffee to oil palm in Lampung, Indonesia, reshapes rural livelihoods and ecosystem services. While economic drivers are known, systems-based analysis of their structural interdependencies remains limited. This study addresses this gap using the Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) method. Data were gathered through a mixed-methods approach involving structured surveys of 31 smallholder households and expert focus groups. The analysis identifies six primary drivers: farmer age, education, group participation, oil palm price, land suitability, and policy support. Moving beyond linear correlations, this study highlights these variables as strategic leverage points conditioning land-use trajectories. Findings provide an operational basis for multi-level policy interventions, emphasising farmer regeneration and institutional strengthening to reconcile profitability with ecological resilience. This research contributes to global debates on sustainable agricultural transformation and land governance in high-intensity farming regions.
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Hernanda et al. (2026) studied this question.
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