Which land should be prioritized for cultivated land restoration? An integrated framework of natural adaptability, economic adaptability, and spatial stability

Cultivated land protection is the key to ensuring food security. Although the sharp decline in the amount of cultivated land in China has been curbed, the quality of replacement arable land is poor, and it is impossible to achieve both stable and high grain production. China still needs to strengthen cultivated land protection through cultivated land restoration. However, there are certain shortcomings in current research on cultivated land restoration, such as the failure to establish a scientific and effective assessment framework and to effectively identify land types that can be restored to cultivated land. Therefore, this study constructs a three-dimensional “natural adaptability of cultivated land–economic adaptability of cultivated land–spatial stability” assessment framework. Specifically, natural adaptability is characterized by soil and environmental indicators such as soil texture, pH, erosion intensity, salinization degree, precipitation, and organic matter content; economic adaptability is evaluated using agricultural production and socio-economic indicators including irrigation conditions, drainage capacity, mechanization level, agricultural labor input, and fiscal support; spatial stability is measured from location conditions, landscape pattern, and environmental pressure, including proximity to settlements and roads, land contiguity, fragmentation, and pollutant emissions. The comprehensive evaluation is conducted using an entropy-weighted multi-indicator method combined with a three-dimensional classification (cube) model. Additionally, Puyang City, a typical grain-producing area in China, is selected as the research area for empirical research. The research results show that the primary and secondary priority areas for cultivated land restoration are concentrated around the main urban areas and areas with concentrated cultivated land. General restoration areas are concentrated in urban peripheries, in county hinterlands, and along the Yellow River. Lagging restoration areas are concentrated in the northeastern and central parts of Puyang City. The main sources of cultivated land restoration are forestland and garden land. For areas with lower restoration priorities, the focus should be placed on improving indicators such as soil salinization, agricultural mechanization, cultivated land stability, and economic efficiency to improve cultivated land quality and promote cultivated land restoration. Notably, incorporating spatial stability into the assessment framework can effectively enhance the stability and sustainable use of cultivated land restoration. Therefore, we emphasize that the scientific implementation of cultivated land restoration is highly important for stable, long-term use and high yields of land restored to cultivated land. Finally, the effective assessment framework provided by this study can provide a reference for other countries or regions facing similar challenges.