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The aim is to evaluate calibration failures across various protocols in a replay-under-drift benchmark.

August 13, 2026Open Access

When a Replay Benchmark Fails Before Replay: Prospectively Locked, Fail-Closed Calibration for Tool-Agent Evaluation

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The aim is to evaluate calibration failures across various protocols in a replay-under-drift benchmark.
Aggregated four separately locked calibration stages
Involved 624 source-origin records across multiple experiments
Evaluated using statistical measures including risk differences and bootstrap intervals.
First three calibration stages failed to meet progression criteria
Final stage achieved 144 concordant successes with a paired risk difference of 0.000 and a p-value of 1.000
The study highlights the limitations of the approach, indicating no population equivalence or evidence of hypotheses testing.

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Aggregate case study analyzes calibration failures in tool-agent evaluation, highlighting limitations and implications.

Berkan Karakus (2026) studied this question.

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