Bankability and Financing for Uganda's Energy Transition

Uganda’s developmental vision is defined by the Tenfold Growth Strategy (TGS), aiming to expand the nominal economy from US$50 billion to US$500 billion by 2040. Achieving this ambitious target depends on a reliable, affordable, and sustainable power sector roadmap, as outlined in the Energy Transition Plan (ETP). While the ETP identifies technically optimized, least-cost expansion pathways, it requires cumulative investments of US$287–325 billion, leaving an estimated financing gap of approximately US$100 billion. This report evaluates the financial viability of the Energy Transition Model using the Model for Informed National Financing (MINFin). The analysis reveals a persistent and widening financing gap that emerges around 2030. By 2070, the annual Financing Requirement (debt service and equity returns) is projected to reach approximately US$9,500 million, while the sector's Funding Availability (net cashflow) remains stagnant at roughly US$1,000 million, resulting in an annual shortfall of US$8,500 million. The primary drivers of this insolvency are an over-reliance on International Commercial Equity (US$91,732 million cumulative outflow) and high Power Purchase Costs (US$80,933 million) within the Single-Buyer Model framework. At its peak in 2050, the transition’s financing needs will consume 2.1% of national GDP, posing a significant macro-fiscal risk. Closing this gap requires a strategic shift from technical planning to bankable delivery, prioritizing concessional scaling, foreign exchange (FX) risk mitigation, and sovereign de-risking of utility obligations