Energy and economic leapfrogging: Strategic pathways for sustainable energy-industry transitions in East Africa's emerging economies

Transitioning from fossil fuels is critical for Africa's climate and renewable energy goals, yet energy system-wide transition research in Africa is limited, with most studies focusing on the power sector. Power-to-X technologies offer pathways for deep defossilisation of hard-to-electrify sectors, yet region-specific analyses remain scarce, as existing literature is mainly concentrated in the Global North, particularly Europe. This study addresses the gap though detailed energy-industry system analyses within a Power-to-X framework, using a robust techno-economic approach for East Africa under macroeconomics assumptions that support industrialisation and defossilisation. Three scenarios are examined, including the current policy (no CO 2 pricing, status quo), delayed policy (CO 2 pricing from 2035, moderately ambitious), and best policy (CO 2 pricing, highly ambitious), enabling assessment of various energy futures. Comparing scenario outcomes reveals that the cost-effective pathway forward relies primarily on renewable energy. Low-cost renewable electricity, mainly from solar photovoltaics and wind power at 13–17 €/MWh by 2050, has the potential to transform the energy-industry landscape of emerging economies in East Africa. Electricity generation is at cost parity with the Delayed Policy Scenario at 16 €/MWh, while the Current Policy Scenario results in significantly higher cost of 41 €/MWh. Comprehensive electrification presents a cost-effective opportunity to bypass fossil fuel dependence and drive long-term economic development. e-Fuels and e-chemicals meet East Africa's hard-to-electrify demands, supplying 21-77% of fuel and chemical demand, compared with 14-33% from bioenergy and 0-65% from fossil fuels. Research on this topic in Africa requires further study to inform investment strategies and policy frameworks that support carbon-neutral industrialisation.