Modeling Vehicle Number Change and Carbon Footprint Trends in Turkey (2030–2040) Using Polynomial Regression

This study analyzes the changes in registered vehicle types in Turkey from 2004 to 2024 and presents forecasts for vehicle numbers and transportation-related carbon footprint for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Using a polynomial regression-based time series model, future trends for gasoline, diesel, and LPG-powered vehicles are projected, and their environmental impacts are evaluated under three distinct policy scenarios. The results show that if fossil-fueled vehicles continue to dominate, the carbon footprint will increase significantly; however, a rapid transition to electric and hybrid vehicles can substantially reduce emissions. The scenario-based projections indicate that advanced sustainability policies could achieve meaningful reductions in emissions by 2040. This study offers evidence-based policy recommendations to support Turkey’s pathway toward its 2053 Net Zero Emission target, emphasizing the critical role of low-carbon mobility transitions.