Navigating an Arctic crossroads: insights into Canada’s Northwest Passage policy paradigm

The Northwest Passage (NWP) has long been an area of contentious politics, making governance and policymaking particularly challenging. As climate change increases navigability in the NWP, its geopolitical significance continues to grow. This raises an important question: have policymakers adjusted their preferences and strategies in response to these shifting external conditions? To address this inquiry, we draw on Peter Hall’s theory of ‘social learning’ to assess whether a paradigm shift has occurred within Canadian NWP policy over the past 56 years. Our analysis combines process tracing, the application of an analytical framework, and thematic content analysis, focusing on two causal mechanisms: (1) the Canadian federal executive’s ideational interests shaping their policy goals; and (2) the tools and mechanisms employed to realise them. We find that while policy settings and instruments have changed over time, the underlying goals have consistently revolved around three foundational ideas: sovereignty, resource development, and environmental stewardship. Thus, despite exogenous shocks and changes in government, a paradigm shift has not occurred in Canadian NWP policy.