AHP-based assessment of renewable energy systems for resilient district heating in a zero-energy neighborhood

This study assesses the resilience of geothermal, solar, wind, and biomass energy systems against natural hazards to supply heating and electricity for a planned zero-energy neighborhood in Meshgin Shahr, Iran. Employing the analytic hierarchy process, the methodology addresses vulnerabilities on both the supply and demand sides under multi-hazard conditions, including earthquakes, floods, frost, storms, and drought. This study advocates system diversity, decentralization, and integration of local renewable resources to reduce fossil fuel dependency and increase adaptive capacity in risk-prone regions. Unlike prior studies, which focused primarily on supply side resilience, this approach presents a dual-perspective evaluation tailored to regional hazard profiles and infrastructure constraints. The findings identified geothermal energy as the most resilient alternative, owing to its underground infrastructure and thermal stability. Solar and wind energy show moderate resilience with site-specific limitations, whereas biomass is significantly more vulnerable to natural hazards.