Geographic Atrophy in AMD: Prognostic Factors Based on Long-Term Follow-Up

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this large-scale long-term retrospective study was to show the enlargement rate (ER) of geographic atrophy (GA) in age-related macular degeneration (AMD), defined as complete retinal pigment epithelium and outer retinal atrophy (cRORA), to find predictors of progression in a clinical routine setting and to compare GA evaluation methods. METHODS: All patients available in our database with follow-up of at least 24 months and cRORA in at least one eye, regardless of neovascular AMD being present, were included. SD-OCT and fundus autofluorescence (FAF) evaluations were performed according to a standardized protocol. The cRORA area ER, the cRORA square root area ER, the FAF GA area, and the condition of the outer retina (inner-/outer-segment [IS/OS] line and external limiting membrane [ELM] disruption scores) were determined. RESULTS: 204 eyes of 129 patients were included. Mean follow-up time was 4.2 ± 2.2 (range 2-10) years. 109 of 204 (53.4%) eyes were classified as MNV-associated GA in AMD (initially or during follow-up); 95 of 204 (46.6%) eyes were classified as pure GA in AMD. The primary lesion was unifocal in 146 (72%) eyes and multifocal in 58 (28%) eyes. A strong correlation was observed between the area of cRORA (SD-OCT) and the FAF GA area (r = 0.924; p < 0.001). Mean ER was 1.44 ± 1.2 mm2/year, mean square root ER 0.29 ± 0.19 mm/year. There was no significant difference in mean ER between eyes without (pure GA) and with intravitreal anti-VEGF injections (MNV-associated GA) (0.30 ± 0.19 mm/year vs. 0.28 ± 0.20 mm/year; p = 0.466). Eyes with multifocal atrophy pattern at baseline had a significantly higher mean ER compared to eyes with unifocal pattern (0.34 ± 0.19 mm/year vs. 0.27 ± 1.19 mm/year; p = 0.008). There were moderate significant correlations between ELM and IS/OS disruption scores and visual acuity at baseline, 5 and 7 years (all r values ca. -0.5; p < 0.001). In multivariate regression analysis, a multifocal cRORA pattern at baseline (p = 0.022) and a smaller baseline lesion size (p = 0.036) were associated with a higher mean ER. CONCLUSION: SD-OCT-evaluated cRORA area might serve as a GA parameter comparable to traditional FAF measurement in clinical routine. The dispersion pattern and baseline lesion size might be predictors of ER, whereas anti-VEGF treatment seems not to be associated with ER.