Electric vehicle adoption, gentrification, and housing prices: a longitudinal study in California

Increasing adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) has raised concerns about potential disparities, including increased gentrification in low-income communities. As a first step in unraveling this rarely studied relationship, we examined the association between ZEV adoption and measures of gentrification. We addressed two questions: (1) How do ZEV adoption trends vary by neighborhood-level gentrification and disadvantage in California metropolitan areas? and (2) Among neighborhoods that are not already gentrified, is prior ZEV adoption associated with subsequent changes in housing prices? We obtained census tract-level data on longitudinal counts of battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) registrations, median home value and monthly rent, disadvantaged communities (DACs) designations, and gentrification status ('none/early,' 'advanced/stable,' or 'exclusive'). Linear mixed models estimated BEV (or PHEV) adoption trajectories (2015-2023) across gentrification status between DAC and non-DAC, allowing nonlinear time trends. Among 'none/early' gentrification tracts, we related prior ZEV adoption (2015-2019) to subsequent (2020-2023) home values and rental prices using linear mixed models. ZEV adoption trends varied by gentrification in non-DAC tracts, while DACs had lower levels of ZEV adoption and less evidence for disparities. Among 'none/early' gentrification tracts, tracts with higher BEV (or PHEV) adoption were associated with larger absolute increases in home value compared to tracts in the lowest adoption quartile. These early findings support community concerns that ZEV adoption may influence housing costs and gentrification. Further research is needed on these complex relations and possible policy interventions.