What question did this study set out to answer?

To develop and evaluate a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model for predicting monthly dengue incidence.

August 1, 2011Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina TropicalOpen Access

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

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Authors

EMEdson Zangiacomí MartínezUniversidade de São Paulo ESElisângela Aparecida Soares da SilvaClinics Hospital of Ribeirão Preto AFAmaury Lélis Dal FabbroUniversidade de São Paulo

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Implication

Time-series analysis demonstrates accurate prediction of dengue incidence in an urban population, highlighting its utility for proactive public health planning.

Key Points

To develop and evaluate a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model for predicting monthly dengue incidence.
Applied the Box-Jenkins statistical framework using R software to model monthly dengue incidence data.
Trained model parameters using monthly dengue cases reported from 1998 through 2008.
Validated model forecasting performance using monthly surveillance data collected between January and December 2009.
Identified SARIMA (2,1,2)(1,1,1)12 as the best-fitting model for predicting dengue case counts.
Demonstrated that case volume in a given month depends heavily on dengue incidence observed one, two, and 12 months earlier, generating 2009 forecasts that closely mirrored observed values.

Cite This Study

Martínez et al. (2011) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a7eb94ce7610909f60d2340 https://doi.org/10.1590/s0037-86822011000400007

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Implication

Time-series analysis demonstrates accurate prediction of dengue incidence in an urban population, highlighting its utility for proactive public health planning.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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