Alternative community participation models for a just energy transition in Ireland: A comparative analysis of community benefit funds and share schemes under ORESS1

Ireland's Offshore Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (ORESS1) mandates a Community Benefit Fund (CBF) to ensure significant community participation in offshore wind development. This paper evaluates whether this mechanism is aligned with the principles of a Just Transition. Using Codling Wind Park as a case study, a structured analytical framework is implemented combining discounted cashflow modelling, scenario analysis, and sensitivity testing with an energy justice evaluation framework. Results show that ORESS1-supported offshore wind projects are financially viable for developers across all scenarios, with internal rates of return consistently exceeding the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). However, while the fixed €2/MWh CBF generates approximately €228 million in cumulative value over 20 years, an alternative Community Share Scheme (CCS) allocating 20% equity to local communities could yield substantially more cumulative value. Although CSS introduces risk-sharing for communities, projects remain financially feasible. Applying distributive, procedural, and recognitional justice criteria suggests that reliance on fixed-benefit funds might not adequately address structural inequalities in host regions. The findings suggest that incorporating optional community equity mechanisms within future ORESS rounds could enhance alignment with Just Transition objectives without undermining investment incentives. Policy design flexibility is therefore critical to ensuring equitable offshore wind deployment in Ireland.