Modeling the 1998 Bahr el Ghazal famine in Southern Sudan

This paper explores the use of system dynamics modeling to better understand the 1998 Bahr el Ghazal famine in southern Sudan. Based on expert interviews and a literature review, it presents a set of causal loop diagrams that clarify the complex dynamics involved in the crisis, demonstrating how three major political ‘holds’ permitted a self-reinforcing famine system to form. A simulation of this model generates similar outcomes in mortality and malnutrition to those that occurred in the actual crisis. Based on this analysis, the paper suggests several ways that modeling could have supported a more effective response at the time of the crisis and may be able to strengthen efforts to prevent famines in the future.