Collaborative monitoring networks refine jaguar habitat suitability and reveal conservation gaps in the Brazilian Cerrado

Habitat loss and fragmentation threaten wide-ranging carnivores worldwide, particularly in rapidly transforming tropical savannas such as the Brazilian Cerrado. Accurate identification of suitable habitat and priority linkages is essential for effective conservation planning, yet occurrence data are often spatially biased toward protected areas. We developed ensemble species distribution models to evaluate habitat suitability across the Cerrado by integrating traditional research records with expert-validated data from a collaborative monitoring network operating largely on private lands. A total of 635 occurrence records were compiled between 2010 and 2025, of which 480 were retained after spatial filtering to reduce clustering effects. The inclusion of collaborative records substantially expanded predicted suitability into agricultural matrices and peripheral regions of the biome, revealing additional habitat hotspots not captured by conventional datasets alone. Spatial overlap analyses demonstrated that most occurrence records and large portions of predicted suitable habitat occur outside protected areas, with limited congruence with previously proposed continental-scale corridor frameworks. In contrast, regionally tailored connectivity proposals showed greater alignment with current suitability patterns. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating structured collaborative monitoring to reduce geographic knowledge gaps and improve conservation prioritization in fragmented landscapes. Sustaining connectivity through private lands will be essential to prevent demographic isolation and ensure long-term persistence of apex predators in the Cerrado.