Sustaining green energy technology policies in South Africa: compounding structural factors and the role of artificial intelligence

While there are compounding factors that undermine the sustainability of green energy technology policies in South Africa, evaluating the potential of artificial intelligence as a policy catalyst to enhance governance frameworks and accelerate the national energy transition is equally important. While existing scholarship highlights the economic rationale for decarbonisation and the technical feasibility of renewable energy pathways, it often treats financial, infrastructural, and institutional challenges in isolation. We adopt a qualitative, case study policy analysis for the comprehension of these dynamics as a mutually reinforcing poly-crisis. Drawing on secondary data from national policy frameworks, institutional reports, and academic literature, the article interrogates the persistent gap between policy ambition and implementation outcomes. It adopts the Rational Choice Theory and Governance Theory. The findings reveal that South Africa’s green energy transition is constrained by three interdependent factors. First, capacity limitations, including fiscal uncertainty, capital-intensive technologies, and inadequate investment incentives, restrict both public and private sector participation. Second, governance fragmentation and weak multi-level coordination generate administrative inertia, policy inconsistency, and limited regulatory coherence, particularly between national directives and local implementation capacity. Third, ageing and inadequate energy infrastructure, especially grid constraints, pose a fundamental barrier to integrating renewable energy at scale. These challenges are further compounded by limited technical expertise within the public sector and socio-political tensions surrounding the Just Energy Transition. This study offers a nuanced understanding of how institutional and infrastructure inadequacies work together to perpetuate carbon lock-in in emerging economies. The study concludes that sustaining green energy policies in South Africa requires more than technical solutions, it demands a systemic governance transformation. AI can improve grids and regulation but needs strong safeguards to avoid deepening inequalities. Strengthening collaborative and multi-level governance, enhancing institutional capacity, and aligning regulatory frameworks with infrastructural investment are critical to overcoming implementation bottlenecks and enabling a resilient, low-carbon energy future.