Decarbonization technology competitiveness and provincial energy demand shifts in China’s carbon-intensive industries under carbon border adjustment mechanism

The Carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) is reshaping the cost structure and competitive landscape of global energy-intensive industries, creating an urgent need for strategic decision-making on technology pathways in China’s export-oriented sectors. This study develops an integrated analytical framework to evaluate technology competitiveness across carbon price scenarios and project provincial energy demand shifts in four CBAM-covered industries: crude steel, aluminum smelting, cement clinker, and synthetic ammonia. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity across sectors. At current EU carbon price levels, secondary aluminum demonstrates negative abatement costs, while scrap-based steel approaches viability as prices rise. In contrast, cement CCS exceeds foreseeable carbon price levels, and green hydrogen routes remain costly under current conditions. Provincial energy demand analysis uncovers a fundamental spatial mismatch: traditional industrial heartlands dominate energy consumption yet have carbon-intensive grids and limited renewable resources. Despite dramatic coal demand reductions under rising carbon prices, geographic concentration remains stable, underscoring path-dependent industrial location. This study suggests phased response strategies: prioritizing circular economy technologies where economics is favorable, accelerating CCS deployment as costs decline, and coordinating industrial relocation with clean energy infrastructure to address spatial mismatches.