Zambia's cooking transition: Assessing alternative pathways and their implications for sustainable development

In Zambia, like many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, firewood and charcoal are the most accessible and affordable cooking fuels for most households. Rapid population growth and urbanisation are increasing demands for woodfuels, driving forest degradation, carbon emissions, biodiversity loss and testing the resilience of land-based systems. Current policy aims to decrease woodfuels as the primary cooking fuels (from approx. 84% of households in 2023 to 55% by 2027) and promote cooking alternatives. The cooking transition can support sustainable development in multiple ways, but holistic analysis of the wide-ranging impacts of different strategies is needed. Reflecting alternative dominant narratives in Zambia, this paper presents three scenarios to illustrate the possible evolution of the cooking sector if driven by a different strategic focus – minimising deforestation through banning charcoal (“Prioritise Forests”), supporting livelihoods (“Prioritise Livelihoods”), and delivering clean cooking through large-scale infrastructure and planning approaches (“Prioritise Centralised Delivery”). A systematic impact analysis is undertaken to evaluate each scenario across social, technical, economic and environmental factors. Potential opportunities are identified, including for health, sustainable rural livelihoods and formal employment. However, substantial transition risks are also identified, such as loss of livelihoods in the charcoal supply chain, and the affordability of cooking for poorer households. This impact assessment, along with insights on the uncertainties and challenges associated with the various approaches, provide a way for policy-makers to explore the desirability and feasibility of different approaches, potential trade-offs, and how clean cooking can contribute to Zambia's broader development agenda.