Assessing the vulnerability of five endemic Iranian Salvia species and their putative pollinator (Apis mellifera meda) to climate change using ecological niche modeling

Climate change represents a primary threat to global biodiversity, particularly impacting species with restricted distributions and specialized ecological requirements. Iran, recognized as a center of diversity for the genus Salvia with approximately 70 species and a high rate of endemism, faces considerable conservation challenges. These endemic species, often confined to specific regions and environmental conditions, are highly vulnerable to habitat shifts and fragmentation driven by climate change. Climate change can also disrupt plant-pollinator interactions and change range overlap, thereby compounding the vulnerability of plant species. Estimating future range shifts and vulnerability enables more effective prioritization of conservation strategies. We performed Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) for five endemic Iranian Salvia species ( S. aristata , S. sahendica , S. hypoleuca , S. eremophila , and S. majdae ) and Apis mellifera meda (Iranian honeybee), as one of their putative pollinators, to assess the potential impact of climate change on their distribution patterns. We used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches to predict the potential geographic distribution of the studied species. The current model was projected under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from 2041 to 2060 using three General Circulation Models (GCMs). In addition, we evaluated the niche overlap of studied species and Apis mellifera meda for current (1970–2000) and future (2041–2060) models. Among environmental variables, Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter of a year (Bio11) along with annual mean temperature (Bio1) were the most important contributing variable for the studied Salvia species. Future climate projections indicate an expansion of potential suitable habitat for S. eremophila , S. hypoleuca , and S. majdae , whereas a contraction is predicted for S. sahendica and S. aristata . The current niche overlap of Apis mellifera meda and all the studied species ranged from 0.18 for S. sahendica to 0.71 for S. aristata . Under both scenarios, niche overlap decreases for S. aristata while it increases for other species under SSP2-4.5 and remains relatively stable under SSP5-8.5. Projection models indicated increase in niche breadth for the studied Salvia species under future climate scenarios except for S. aristata under SSP5-8.5. The niche breadth for Apis mellifera meda is projected to remain stable but its potentially suitable area will decrease by 2041–2060. The vulnerability of the studied species to climate change is not uniform, highlighting the need for species-specific conservation strategies. Our results identified S. sahendica and S. aristata as highly vulnerable to climate changes, warranting their prioritization in conservation programs.