VAR interventions, match events, and referee decision direction in UEFA matches involving Turkish football teams: a retrospective observational study

Previous research has predominantly examined the impact of the VAR system on match events and home-field advantage by comparing seasons with and without VAR implementation. However, this approach does not directly assess actual VAR interventions during matches. Therefore, this study investigated the associations between VAR interventions, key match events, and home-team bias in UEFA competitions involving Turkish football teams. This retrospective observational study analyzed 302 matches involving Turkish clubs in UEFA competitions between 2019 and 2026. Generalized linear models were used to examine the associations between matches involving at least one VAR intervention and match events, whereas a separate generalized linear model evaluated the association between the number of VAR interventions and total added time. All models were adjusted for match stage, home/away status, and competition where appropriate. A binomial test assessed whether referee decisions overturned through VAR review systematically favored the home team, and binary logistic regression examined the associations of spectator attendance and stadium occupancy rate with the direction of these decisions. VAR technology was available in 196 of the 302 matches, and at least one VAR intervention occurred in 56 of these matches (28.5%), including 44 matches with one intervention and 12 matches with two interventions. Matches involving VAR intervention were associated with a higher incidence of penalty decisions (B = 1.04; Exp(B) = 2.84; p < 0.001). Each additional VAR intervention was also associated with longer total added time (B = 1.67; p < 0.001). No significant associations were observed for goals ( p > 0.05), yellow cards ( p > 0.05), or red cards ( p > 0.05). Among referee decisions overturned through VAR review, 46% favored the home team and 54% favored the away team ( p > 0.05). Spectator attendance ( p > 0.05) and stadium occupancy rate ( p > 0.05) were not significantly associated with the direction of referee decisions. Matches involving VAR intervention were associated with a higher incidence of penalty decisions, whereas each additional VAR intervention was associated with longer total added time. No significant associations were observed for goals, disciplinary cards, or home-team bias. These findings suggest that actual VAR interventions are associated with specific match events but do not provide evidence that they are a primary determinant of the home-field advantage.